Rate of Increase of Covid-19 Infections and Number of Infections We Should Expect This Month


The rate of increase of Covid-19 cases across the globe is ascending with every passing day. Covid-19 infections are increasing at an ever so alarming rate and it is a serious matter of concern.

516,299 cases were recorded all across the globe from May 1 – May 5.
By the end of March, the World was recording somewhere around 250,000 – 300,000 cases over a period of 5 days. By the end of April, that number surged to over 500,000 every 5 days.

Current data and patterns show that the number of cases will continue to rise in countries which were earlier out of the radar of Covid-19. The rates at which the number of cases per day are increasing in countries like Russia, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, etc; it would be safe to say that by the end of this month, Covid-19 infections will rise more than ever before.

For example, after recording the first Covid-19 infection, India recorded only a total of 1139 cases in the next 60 days at a rate of 18.98 cases per day. After that, at a rate of 1053.96, India recorded 33,727 cases in the next 32 days until the 30th of April. And then, from May 1 – May 7, at a rate of 3070.1, India recorded 21,491 cases.

Same has been the case with other countries too. It breaks out in a country, starts very slow, and then picks up the pace after 30 – 45 days. Even in the US, from the day of recording the first case on February 15, the total number of cases at the 30 day mark on March 15, were a mere 3617. After that, it just went berserk.

Russia too, witnessed the same pattern. In the first 49 days, Russia recorded only around 5000 cases. And in the next 31 days, Russia recorded over 150,000 cases.

Turkey recorded just over 2,400 cases in the first 40 days.
Almost every country has followed the same pattern except for Italy and China. Maybe it is because of the fact that they were one of the first countries to be hit and didn’t know Covid-19 was affecting their people until it was too late. Whatever it was, that will need to be studied differently. But the larger picture shows that pattern is stable.

Different regions, different conditions, same pattern. It is safe to say, the countries who have just started to record larger number of cases, will continue to do so and the rate will keep increasing with every passing day.
Considering the rate of increase of infections, India should record a minimum of 91,700 cases this month.

And if we factor in the rate at which the rate of increase is increasing and the environmental factors, then India should have a minimum of 135,000 to 165,000 cases in this month alone.

Russia and Brazil too shall record anywhere between 280,000-335,000 cases in this month.

Applying the same pattern to other countries, there should be a minimum of 2.5 to 3.3 million cases in the month of May.

Although, it depends highly on the testing rate. If countries like India, Pakistan, etc. increase their testing rate, we should have over 225,000 cases in India and somewhere around 80,000 – 100,000 in Pakistan alone. At current testing rate, Pakistan will record around 45,000 to 53,000 cases in this month.

USA has a good testing rate and it should keep steady on the current numbers going by the pattern and should end up recording at least 1.15 million cases this month.

Also given the direction of sea currents and the amount of precipitation in the last few weeks, I’d predict heavy rainfalls in and around India. This change in weather will act as a catalyst and the number of cases might surge because of this.

Northern nations like US, Russia and parts of Europe, and also China, might experience a sudden change in weather too, resulting in increase of Covid-19 cases.

China will be hit again! And this time, it will be worse than before.

3 replies

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