Origin and Spread
At the end of September, an iceberg, almost as big as Scotland’s Isle of Skye, weighing over 315 billion tonnes, broke off the Antarctic at 90 degrees east latitude. That happens to be almost directly under Bangladesh and further leading to China.
Now, we all know that the virus is believed to have been started in the Wuhan Province of China. But, what if we are wrong? What if we have been looking at it the wrong way all this while? What if it never started in China?
The iceberg that broke off the Antarctic was big enough to not melt at a fast rate. So, it is very obvious, that after having being broken apart at the end of September, it might have started melting by the second or third week of October.
And an iceberg as big as that doesn’t travel across the sea very fast.
Given it’s size and weight, it might have reached near the equator only around 15-20 days after it broke off and then started flowing further.
And then it started melting into the sea and releasing all it had buried inside. We were very sure about the fact that it had nutrients buried inside. But what if it also had a virus? Or viruses!
The iceberg was measured to weigh 315 billion tonnes. Near the Antarctic, 165 – 182 million cubic meters of water is displaced from the West to the East every day. That is enough amount of flow to not let the iceberg move towards the west.
Now, let’s assume that the average flow was 170 million cubic meter per second.
We know that the iceberg D-28 broke off the Antarctica at the end of September. 26 September to be more precise.
This amount of flow is enough to carry a 315 billion tonne iceberg from Antarctica at 90 degree East and make it move diagonally and cross at 45 degree North longitude.
The direction of ocean currents is mostly counter-clockwise all across the globe, which is West to East, and that too supports the theory.
Assuming it’s weight and the total amount of water flow, and taking into consideration the pressure, density, and irregular currents, we can theorize that the iceberg might have slipped off it’s course towards Bangladesh and reached somewhere near Yellow Sea at 135 degree East latitude. And from there, it reached the wet market of Wuhan also known as Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market. Now, it isn’t really thousands of miles from the Yellow Sea!
We all know that the patterns of sea-waves and water-currents are highly irregular and random. I haven’t been able to get my hands on the complete data of ocean currents and weather during those 20-30 day period. But I believe, if we study those patterns, my theory should hold.
This is the only probable path the iceberg would have followed while continuously melting into the sea.
Now, anything that enters the sea, remains there for years. But something as small as virus, can flow with the air, reach ground levels flowing with the water, through sea, rivers, underground water resources.
All we know is, China was the first country to have been hit hard by the virus; the first country who actually diagnosed what it was.
It would have spread at a very high rate in Bangladesh and the entire Indian and pakistan coastline, but wasn’t detected sooner because of low-testing rate.
At the moment, if you look at the graph, all the states and countries that are near the sea are worst hit by the virus.
New York – 343,409
Turkey – 137,115
Iran – 107,603
Maharashtra – 12,974
Bangladesh (14,657 from 150 on April 2) is seeing an increase in cases
France – 176,658
Italy – 218,268
United Kingdom – 215,260
Germany – 171,539
Pakistan – 29,465 (as increased case count recently)
Brazil – 156,061
Mexico – 33,460
Ireland – 22,760
Ecuador (from 11,183 on April 23 to 29,071 on May 10) etc.
In Russia, the number of cases started escalating slowly and now are increasing at a very rapid rate. With time, the iceberg started melting into larger water bodies, occupying more area in them and then seeping into the underground water resources and rivers. This hypotheses can be proved by the fact that out of 209,688 cases recorded in Russia by the 10th of May, over over 100,000 were recorded in Moscow, the city located on the Volga river with a population of almost 16 million.
Volga river is the largest river in russia with a basin size of 530,000 sq. miles and flows through major Russian cities, included the most popluated, Moscow.
Now, the only logical reason why Russia started experiencing a growth in number of cases of Covid-19 much later than some other nearby countries has to be the fact that most of Russian population lives away from the sea near the Volga River which is far inside Russia.
Even in the US, the first case was recorded in Washington, where a man who returned from Wuhan was found positive. Now, some may argue that he might have been a pre-carrier. But there is no way for one man to have spread the virus across 50 states within 45 days.
Even for India, the first few states recorded to have been hit hard by the Covid-19 were those near the coast (exceptions were states like Punjab, Rajasthan, Delhi and UP; but they had travellers coming in from various place and moreover, they weren’t hit that hard in the beginning).
This is the only plausible theory at the moment about how the virus might have started.
The theory of it having originated from a lab in China is bollocks!
If Chinese had the brain power to make something as complex as Covid-19 with so many variations and mutations at genetic levels, they would have successfully teleported a human being into space by now.
Assuming that 2% of the 315 billion tonne iceberg comprised of Covid-19 corona virus strand, that aount to 630 million tonnes. Now, under no circumstances is it going to just evaporate or slip into the unknown all of a sudden.
And given the fact that it has been inconsistent and doesn’t really seem to be something that follows a certain pattern while flowing with the water to a general observer, that is because of the fact, waves don’t flow in any pattern. The only we could actually study and determine the pattern of waves is by solving the Navier-Stokes equation in 3-dimensional space which we haven’t been able to do in the past 150 years.
Our best bet at determining its trajectory and extent would be to study all the undersea activities and formation of waves and winds since the day the iceberg broke off.
Given that the ocean currents were flowing towards the east and took the iceberg from 90 degree East to 135 degree East latitude, it is safe to assume that the currents followed the same pattern thereafter, with a little adjustment in the upward flow, and moving east, reached North America affecting Taiwan on the way. Then it further spread to Europe and other countries, given the zig-zag pattern of sea waves and also taking into consideration the turbulence that acts on water continuously.
It kept flowing towards the East, hit almost every country and if the pattern is right, it will hit China, South Korea and other countries like Japan, etc. soon again.