Apart from that, Pakistan too recorded almost exactly the same number of cases as I had predicted.
So now, for the month of June.
If last month’s pattern and rate of increase were to follow for the next 30 days, India will record 334,000 cases in the month of June.
Considering India’s testing rate and a few stupid testing guidelines under which only the patients with every symptom in the book are considered to be eligible for a test, and if we factor in the rate at which the rate of increase is ascending, mathematically, India should record a minimum of 550,000 cases.
The coming week will certainly see a rise in number of cases in the states of Punjab and Haryana.
Also, 6th June onwards, there should be a sudden spike in number of cases in the states of Maharashtra, Gujarat, Daman and Diu, Goa, Karnataka, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh.
Further, by the 10th of this month, India should start recording around 11,000 cases per day with an increase in numbers in the currently less affected states like Himachal and few others in the North.
By the last week of this month, India should probably start touching 23,000-28,000 mark or above.
This should all hold if the testing rate remains the same as it is today.
Any increase in testing rate should most certainly take the number of cases to around 750,000-800,000.
Also, if the Indian government somehow happens to revise its guidelines regarding the eligibility for being tested, it would also increase the number of cases substantially.
Regardless of what will be or what will not be, if the current pattern, scenario and guidelines continue, India should have a minimum of 550,000 cases in the next 30 days.
And following the same pattern, if we talk about the world, Nations like Mexico, Chile, Pakistan, etc. should also witness a rise in numbers.
While Brazil, USA and Russia should continue going at the same pace, other countries like the ones mentioned above and few others like Bangladesh, South Africa, Oman, Nepal etc. should also see an increase in numbers as compared to the previous month.
All in all, the global numbers should cross 10 million by the end of this month.
Categories: World
Not “like” because of what’s happening but because you’re raising awareness. The numbers are horrible. In the USA as well. And we think we should reopen.
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People need to realize that governments are laying stress on re-opening, just because they need to rebuild the economy!
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The gods of the Indians will fight and protect them.What is the death rate in India?.Considering all your analysis how many people have changed their addresses to heaven in India?.
The Indians are very smart.They have their gods,doctors and all scientist working for them.They are aware of the magnitude of COVID19 PANDEMIC and the danger that we all face.
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Well, for one, there is no god or gods.
So that doesn’t help at all.
The death rate in India (5408) is currently lower than few other countries as the strand that is affecting Indian population is a different.
All Indians aren’t smart!
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My response is full of sentiments than actuality. I have so many colleagues that are Indians and I love so many things about India. I just don’t want COVID19 PANDEMIC to get to them at all. So my wishes are that of a beggar. Thanks for the awareness, hopefully there will be solutions soonest. Meanwhile social distancing 6feet apart, wash your hands with soap and water frequently for 30seconds,use hand sanitizer frequently, use facemask when going out. If you are sick stay home. If that trip is not important stay home.
Thanks for caring.
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Thanks my dear.God drive away flies for the horse that has no tail.
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Despite your analysis being realistic it’s frightening. Sadly, all what you mentioned is nothing but factual analysis so can’t object there.
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Apart from being a doctor, you are a good journalist too. š¤£ Just kidding! True that the cases would rise if this continues…. But the reality is our “PM doesn’t cares”
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Our PM is an idiot.
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As for the journalist part; journalists predict, I calculate.
They throw darts in the dark; I use mathematics.
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I hope that India can cope with this crisis, the country is certainly lacking in certain other areas but I am unsure about the healthcare sector. I think England prime minister has rushed to get lock down eased, which I have no doubt will trigger another wave, peace.
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As of now, there is no lockdown in India either.
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Let’s hope for the best. š
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Amen.Let us hope for the best.
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Number of infections is increasing every day, and we are now in top seven countries. Your figures are realistic, but alarming. It is really difficult to understand the reason for the first lockdown when number was just 350, and when the number is touching two lac, it is being lifted up. Economy is okay, but life is also important.
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For this government, economy is more important.
Not because they want to protect it but because these idiots can’t do it themselves.
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Thank you for your considered post – I’m so sorry to see the number of fatalities in India and Pakistan due to Covid-19. It seems our worst fears are realised and things are re-opening world-wide for economic reasons. Thank you again for your post, I’m in the UK and things are not good here either – we fear a second wave of the virus, which is almost inevitable due to our so-called government’s attitude.
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