Spread of Coronavirus in the Indian Sub-Continent


I don’t understand what makes people think that Indians are immune to Covid-19 and that India will not see as many cases as Europe or USA have.

The Indian Council of Medical Research is still adamant on their hypothetical theory based on sheer lack of mathematical ignorance that India has still not seen any kind of exponential rise.

While the numbers happen to suggest otherwise. Now, I agree that India hasn’t recorded as many cases as USA, but is that really the kind of comparison we should be making? Also, the rate of testing in USA is light years ahead compared to that in India.

The number of cases in India have gone from 12,000 on the 15th of April to nearly 23500 on the 23rd. Also, the number of cases in Nepal went from 9 on the 11th of April to 48 on 23rd.

Also Bangladesh, that recorded a mere 50 cases between 15th February and 1st April, now has over 4600 cases.

Now, where I come from, and what I have learnt while acquiring PhDs in the field of Theoretical Physics, this is exponential growth. And that too, a disturbing one.

Even for India, the number of cases between 15th February and 15th April were near about 12000 which rose by another 12000 in next 8 days.

So yeah, if Mathematics were to be applied correctly, that is what one calls “Exponential Growth”.

And this is why “MATHEMATICS” is important.

Categories: india, World

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8 replies

  1. Mathematics is, and many have mis counted. In UK doctors dishing out death certificates in care homes were looking at elderly people who died of maybe a bleed or pneumonia etc and they never had tested for covid so not surprisingly they had not been counted. Then there are the people who were to scared to go to hospital or did not want to go, they died and were not counted because they were not tested. Then the people who were tested but not yet ill enough to stay in hospital, they went in at the end and had been counted twice. But we all tread water learning as we go. Why keep asking could we have done something earlier, better, faster. We did what we did and can not go back. After, one day, we will take stock and measure which if any did better. Only then can we make a plan, for if or when it happens again. For hindsight is a wonderful thing and as my Dad once told me don’t look back unless you are travelling that way. So moving forward we can dissect to get the best plan, to be prepared. The blame culture needs to stop, it doesn’t help what has gone, the blind led the blind. We all did what we believe was best. Though Sweden is watched closer than most.

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    • It’s not about looking back or what we could have done. It’s about we need to start seeing the patterns and mathematical analyses so that we can at least predict somethimg that’s coming.

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      • Sorry, If I was not clear enough, I am saying they have to look at now and going forward instead of looking back and blaming. I am in agreement with you. It scared me seeing all the workers that live without homes in Delhi going back to their villages. My worry is some may die on that journey and others take it to the families that may not have been infected. Having worked there for a short time I have an interest. A friend has homes in the borth and says there is none which astounds me as the home for children with HIV TB and Leprosy must be high on the list of risk of death. So I am watching closely with great concearn. Stay safe yourself.

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  2. Honestly speaking the numbers which India showing is the number of patients discovered… Not infected.. Less testing comparatively to other countries.. Though Indians r definitely not showing worst cases

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    • I really don’t understand what you mean by worst cases. But if you mean symptoms, well, then we are just waiting for the infected to get worse and reach hospitals when they can’t actually be helped.

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      • That is the point. We don’t understand its biological properties. But we can analyze patterns and data and try to mathematocally be able to diagnose its ascend and descend and its trajectory.

        Liked by 1 person

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